The Science Behind Overconfidence and Its Cost in Trading.
When it comes to the stock market, every trader dreams of making the perfect call, catching the top or bottom, and walking away with profits. But one of the biggest psychological traps that most traders fall into is overconfidence . While confidence is necessary to take trades, overconfidence can be disastrous . What is Overconfidence in Trading ? Overconfidence occurs when traders overestimate their knowledge, skills, or ability to predict market movements . They might believe that past successes guarantee future wins, or that their intuition is better than data-driven strategies. This often leads to taking bigger risks than necessary. The Psychology Behind Overconfidence Research in behavioral finance shows that the human brain has a natural tendency to: Remember wins more than losses – making us believe we are better traders than we actually are. Overrate personal knowledge – assuming we "know" where the market will move. Ignore randomnes...